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Driving Skills at Time of Licensure Can Predict Future Crashes

October 27, 2023

Editor’s Note: Elizabeth Zeichner (she/her) is a former high school teacher and fourth-year medical student at Emory University School of Medicine. -Rachel Y. Moon, MD, Associate Editor, Digital Media, Pediatrics

For many teenagers, getting their driver’s license is an exciting rite of passage.

However, it is well known that young new drivers are overrepresented in crashes. As reported by the Highway Traffic Safety Administration in 2020, while those aged 15-20 accounted for 5.1% of licensed drivers, they made up 12% of police-reported crashes and 8.5% of those in fatal crashes.

Building upon existing knowledge on the high risk of crashes for young drivers, Elizabeth A. Walshe, PhD and a team of researchers at the Center for Injury Research and Prevention at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia explore ways to predict the time from licensure to first crash in an article and accompanying video abstract early releasing in Pediatrics, entitled “Driving Skills at Licensure and Time to First Crash,” which examines the association of driving skills at time of licensure and time to first crash (10.1542/peds.2022-060817).

This study reports on 16,914 drivers under age 25 in Ohio who completed a virtual driving assessment (VDA) at time of licensure. The VDA is self-directed, takes 15 minutes to complete, simulates common serious crash risk scenarios, and navigates examinees through different environments and hazards, such as construction zones and pedestrian crossings.

Drivers were separated into 4 major “driving classes” by their driving skills on the VDA:

  • No Issues
  • Minor Issues
  • Major Issues
  • Major Issues with Dangerous Behavior, including aggressive and reckless behavior

Of the 16,914 drivers, 2,301 (13.6%) later had at least one police-reported crash.

  • Drivers in the No Issues group had a crash risk 10% lower than average
  • Drivers in the Major Issues with Dangerous Behavior had a crash risk 11% higher than average.

Interestingly, drivers who received their licenses at age 18 had a crash risk 16% higher than average. Notably, in Ohio, individuals 18 and older do not have the strict learner’s permit and behind-the-wheel requirements that are required of those younger than 18 years.

This article suggests that adolescents with more dangerous or reckless driving tendencies (as demonstrated in the VDA) at the time they receive their driver’s license are more likely to be at risk for involvement in a near-future crash. VDA programs may be helpful in identifying those who might need additional personalized driving skills training.

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