To estimate the cumulative proportion of youth who self-report having been arrested or taken into custody for illegal or delinquent offenses (excluding arrests for minor traffic violations) from ages 8 to 23 years.
Self-reported arrest history data (excluding arrests for minor traffic violations) from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (N = 7335) were examined from 1997 to 2008.
By age 18, the in-sample cumulative arrest prevalence rate lies between 15.9% and 26.8%; at age 23, it lies between 25.3% and 41.4%. These bounds make no assumptions at all about missing cases. If we assume that the missing cases are at least as likely to have been arrested as the observed cases, the in-sample age-23 prevalence rate must lie between 30.2% and 41.4%. The greatest growth in the cumulative prevalence of arrest occurs during late adolescence and the period of early or emerging adulthood.
Since the last nationally defensible estimate based on data from 1965, the cumulative prevalence of arrest for American youth (particularly in the period of late adolescence and early adulthood) has increased substantially. At a minimum, being arrested for criminal activity signifies increased risk of unhealthy lifestyle, violence involvement, and violent victimization. Incorporating this insight into regular clinical assessment could yield significant benefits for patients and the larger community.
Comments
Re: "Cumulative Prevalence of Arrest from Ages 8 to 23 in a National Sample"
James P. Smith, PhD, RAND Corporation, Katherine A. McGonagle, PhD, University of Michigan
Re: "Cumulative Prevalence of Arrest from Ages 8 to 23 in a National Sample." Brame et al. 2012. 129. 1. 21-27, doi: 10.1542/peds.2010-3710.
We read with great interest the article "Cumulative Prevalence of Arrest from Ages 8 to 23 in a National Sample" by Brame et al. recently published in PEDIATRICS which showed a high level and growing prevalence of arrests among American youth by the time they reached age 23. We agree with the main themes of the article, but write to offer an expansion using data not available to them.
Our remarks are based on data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), which is the world's longest running panel study since 1968 of a nationally representative set of American families. Our data come from the PSID Transition into Adulthood Supplement collected on young adults aged 18-23 and fielded in 2007. This supplement asked these young adults whether or not they have ever been arrested and if so whether there were multiple arrests. The principal advantage of our data is that it contains reason for the arrest so that we can show differences in offense severity by factors such as gender and social class -- measured by dividing our sample into three income terciles -- bottom, middle, and high -- based on incomes of their families when they were fifteen and sixteen years old. Following Brame et al., we were also able to eliminate arrests for minor traffic violations.
As shown in Table 1, there are very large differences in type of arrest by both gender and social class. Compared to young females, young males are more than twice as likely to have been arrested by their early twenties (24% compared to 11%) and are three times as likely as females to have multiple arrests. Compared to young females, arrests of young males are four times more frequently violent or drug related offences while 60% of the arrests of young females were for minor violations or underage drinking offenses.
Similarly, both the probability of ever being arrested and having multiple arrests are much more common in the bottom of the income distribution compared to the top. Over 70% of arrests in the top tier of the income distribution are for underage liquor possession and minor violations. In sharp contrast, violent crimes and drug offenses comprise more than half of the reasons for arrest for those in the bottom income tier. These differences are particularly stark given that many in the bottom tier have been arrested multiple times and these types of arrests are more likely to lead to conviction and prison.
Our data combined with evidence of a sharp secular increase in arrests in Brame et al. paint a very disturbing picture of contemporary young adults in America. This is a particularly acute problem among young males, especially those from less privileged backgrounds. Twenty-seven percent of young men from such backgrounds have been arrested, and many multiple times with half of their arrests involving violence or drugs. The long-term legacy effects of such a beginning to adult life are not yet known, but it should serve as a red flag that something is terribly wrong. We are not as sanguine as Brame et al. that the pediatrician's office is an effective front line remedy. Rather, this calls for a coordinated approach that involves the family, school, neighborhoods, and the health care profession of America.
References
Brame, R, Turner, M., Paternoster, R. and Bushway, S. "Cumulative Prevalence of Arrest from Ages 8 to 23 in a National Sample." PEDIATRICS. Volume 129. Number 1. January 2012. Pp. 21-27.
Table 1: Fraction Arrested and Reason for Arrest of Young Americans by Gender and Social Class
Among Ages 21-23
Total sample (n=559)
By Income Tercile
All
Male
Female
Bottom %
Middle %
Top %
Ever arrested?
17.1
24.0
11.4
22.8
15.9
13.1
Once
9.4
11.9
7.4
11.9
6.7
9.8
>Once
7.7
12.0
4.1
11.0
9.2
3.3
Arrest Charge*
Assault, Domestic Violence
8.6
6.9
11.6
13.5
4.4
5.8
Burglary, Probation, Weapon Violation
14.6
18.5
7.8
24.6
13.6
0
Disorderly Conduct
8.4
6.5
11.8
2.4
18.2
6.7
Drug Offense
14.4
18.2
7.7
15.1
13.0
15.0
Minor Violations
19.7
14.3
29.2
22.9
21.3
13.0
Underage Liquor Possession
34.2
35.6
31.9
21.6
29.6
59.6
* Conditional on arrest (excluding traffic violations). Charge is "last" for those arrested more than once. Source: Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). All data are weighted.
Conflict of Interest:
None declared