OBJECTIVES: To identify predictors of becoming a daily cigarette smoker over the course of 4 years. METHODS: We identified 12- to 24-year-olds at wave 1 of the US Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health Study and determined ever use, age at first use, and daily use through wave 4 for 12 tobacco products. RESULTS: Sixty-two percent of 12- to 24-year-olds (95% confidence interval [CI]: 60.1% to 63.2%) tried tobacco, and 30.2% (95% CI: 28.7% to 31.6%) tried ≥5 tobacco products by wave 4. At wave 4, 12% were daily tobacco users, of whom 70% were daily cigarette smokers (95% CI: 67.4% to 73.0%); daily cigarette smoking was 20.8% in 25- to 28-year-olds (95% CI: 18.9% to 22.9%), whereas daily electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) vaping was 3.3% (95% CI: 2.4% to 4.4%). Compared with single product triers, the risk of progressing to daily cigarette smoking was 15 percentage points higher (adjusted risk difference [aRD] 15%; 95% CI: 12% to 18%) among those who tried ≥5 products. In particular, e-cigarette use increased the risk of later daily cigarette smoking by threefold (3% vs 10%; aRD 7%; 95% CI: 6% to 9%). Daily smoking was 6 percentage points lower (aRD −6%; 95% CI: −8% to −4%) for those who experimented after age 18 years. CONCLUSIONS: Trying e-cigarettes and multiple other tobacco products before age 18 years is strongly associated with later daily cigarette smoking. The recent large increase in e-cigarette use will likely reverse the decline in cigarette smoking among US young adults.
CONTEXT: The 1998 Master Settlement Agreement (MSA) restricted tobacco industry advertising practices that targeted teens. OBJECTIVE: To assess whether cigarette-advertising campaigns conducted after the MSA continue to influence smoking among adolescents. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Participants were a national longitudinal cohort of 1036 adolescents (baseline age: 10–13 years) enrolled in a parenting study. Between 2003 and 2008, 5 sequential telephone interviews were conducted, including the participant's report of brand of “favorite” cigarette advertisement. The fifth interview was conducted after the start of RJ Reynolds' innovative “Camel No. 9” advertising campaign in 2007. Smoking outcome reported from the fifth survey. RESULTS: The response rate through the fifth survey was 71.8%. Teenagers who reported any favorite cigarette ad at baseline (mean age: 11.7 years) were 50% more likely to have smoked by the fifth interview (adjusted odds ratio: 1.5 [95% confidence interval: 1.0–2.3]). For boys, the proportion with a favorite ad was stable across all 5 surveys, as it was for girls across the first 4 surveys. However, after the start of the Camel No. 9 advertising campaign, the proportion of girls who reported a favorite ad increased by 10 percentage points, to 44%. The Camel brand accounted almost entirely for this increase, and the proportion of each gender that nominated the Marlboro brand remained relatively stable. CONCLUSIONS: After the MSA, adolescents continued to be responsive to cigarette advertising, and those who were responsive were more likely to start smoking. Recent RJ Reynolds advertising may be effectively targeting adolescent girls.