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TABLE 2

Multivariate Random-Effects Models Predicting the State-Level Obesity Prevalence (Percentage Points) Among 2- to 4-Year-Old WIC Participants, 2000–2014

Model 1Model 2
Intercept (95% CI) 15.55*** (14.93 to 16.17) 16.01*** (15.30 to 16.71) 
Annual trenda, yrs (95% CI) 0.26*** (0.22 to 0.31) 0.23*** (0.17 to 0.29) 
Change in annual trend after 2009 (95% CI) −0.55*** (−0.66 to −0.43) −0.57*** (−0.69 to −0.44) 
Race and/or ethnicity, %b (95% CI)   
 American Indian — 0.07 (−0.003 to 0.14) 
 Asian American — 0.19* (0.01 to 0.37) 
 African American — 0.03 (−0.00 to 0.06) 
 Hispanic — 0.03 (−0.001 to 0.05) 
Children in poverty (standardized)c, % (95% CI) — 0.07 (−0.25 to 0.39) 
ICC 0.78 0.75 
N 294 294 
N groups 49 49 
Model 1Model 2
Intercept (95% CI) 15.55*** (14.93 to 16.17) 16.01*** (15.30 to 16.71) 
Annual trenda, yrs (95% CI) 0.26*** (0.22 to 0.31) 0.23*** (0.17 to 0.29) 
Change in annual trend after 2009 (95% CI) −0.55*** (−0.66 to −0.43) −0.57*** (−0.69 to −0.44) 
Race and/or ethnicity, %b (95% CI)   
 American Indian — 0.07 (−0.003 to 0.14) 
 Asian American — 0.19* (0.01 to 0.37) 
 African American — 0.03 (−0.00 to 0.06) 
 Hispanic — 0.03 (−0.001 to 0.05) 
Children in poverty (standardized)c, % (95% CI) — 0.07 (−0.25 to 0.39) 
ICC 0.78 0.75 
N 294 294 
N groups 49 49 

Results are reported for models with state random effects; Durbin-Wu-Hausman tests fail to reject the null hypothesis of no significant differences in consistency between models with fixed and random effects. —, not applicable.

a

The annual trend is calculated with the year centered in 2009.

b

Demographic makeup is presented as the number of children with race reported in each category as a percentage of (for 2000 and 2004) all 1- to 4-y-old children enrolled in the WIC or (for 2008–2014) all 2- to 4-y-old WIC participants as a percentage of all children for whom a race in the 5 categories was reported. We further subtract the population-weighted mean demographic makeup from each of these variables so the intercept in model 2 can be interpreted as the mean overall obesity prevalence in 2009 for a state with a demographic makeup comparable to the demographic makeup of our population across all observations (1.14% American Indian, 3.24% Asian American and/or Pacific Islander, 19.95% African American, 44.16% Hispanic, and 31.5% white) and a child poverty rate equal to the average across state-year observations (14.84).

c

Standardized rate for children ages 0 to 17 y calculated with the anchored SPM available from the Center on Poverty and Social Policy at Columbia University for all US states.19 

*

P < .05; *** P < .001

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