Model Performance
| . | PECARN Modela (N = 4091) . | De Novo Modelb (N = 4091) . | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any 1 Risk Factor . | No Risk Factorsc . | Value (95% CI) . | Any 1 Risk Factor . | No Risk Factorsc . | Value (95% CI) . | |
| CSI present | 67 | 7 | — | 68 | 6 | — |
| CSI absent | 2186 | 1831 | — | 1998 | 2019 | — |
| Sensitivity | — | — | 90.54% (83.87%–97.21%) | — | — | 91.89% (85.7%–98.11%) |
| Specificity | — | — | 45.58% (44.04%–47.12%) | — | — | 50.26% (48.72%–51.81%) |
| Positive predictive value | — | — | 2.97% (2.27%–3.68%) | — | — | 3.29% (2.52%–4.06%) |
| Negative predictive value | — | — | 99.62% (99.34%–99.90%) | — | — | 99.71% (99.47%–99.94%) |
| Positive likelihood ratio | — | — | 1.66 (1.54–1.80) | — | — | 1.85 (1.71–1.99) |
| Negative likelihood ratio | — | — | 0.21 (0.10–0.42) | — | — | 0.16 (0.07–0.35) |
| . | PECARN Modela (N = 4091) . | De Novo Modelb (N = 4091) . | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any 1 Risk Factor . | No Risk Factorsc . | Value (95% CI) . | Any 1 Risk Factor . | No Risk Factorsc . | Value (95% CI) . | |
| CSI present | 67 | 7 | — | 68 | 6 | — |
| CSI absent | 2186 | 1831 | — | 1998 | 2019 | — |
| Sensitivity | — | — | 90.54% (83.87%–97.21%) | — | — | 91.89% (85.7%–98.11%) |
| Specificity | — | — | 45.58% (44.04%–47.12%) | — | — | 50.26% (48.72%–51.81%) |
| Positive predictive value | — | — | 2.97% (2.27%–3.68%) | — | — | 3.29% (2.52%–4.06%) |
| Negative predictive value | — | — | 99.62% (99.34%–99.90%) | — | — | 99.71% (99.47%–99.94%) |
| Positive likelihood ratio | — | — | 1.66 (1.54–1.80) | — | — | 1.85 (1.71–1.99) |
| Negative likelihood ratio | — | — | 0.21 (0.10–0.42) | — | — | 0.16 (0.07–0.35) |
—, not applicable.
Model including only those variables identified in the PECARN retrospective case-control study.
Model created by using stepwise variable selection.
A risk factor was considered absent if the ED provider classified the risk factor as not present, unable to be assessed, not assessed, or unknown.