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TABLE 4

Comparison of Prognostic Performance for LqSOFA, qSOFA, PEWS, NICE High-Risk Criteria, and Lactate in the Validation Cohort

Scoring SystemOdds Ratio (95% CI)Sensitivity, % (95% CI)Specificity, % (95% CI)Positive Predictive Value, % (95% CI)Negative Predictive Value, % (95% CI)Positive Likelihood Ratio (95% CI)Negative Likelihood Ratio (95% CI)Accuracy, % (95% CI)
Primary outcome: CC admission within 48 h         
 LqSOFA ≥2 76.1 (51.2 to 113.1) 39.2 (31.0 to 48.0) 99.2 (99.0 to 99.3) 34.2 (28.1 to 40.9) 99.3 (99.2 to 99.4) 46.6 (35.0 to 62.0) 0.6 (0.5 to 0.7) 98.5 (98.3 to 98.7) 
 LqSOFA ≥1 14.4 (9.9 to 21.0) 71.9 (63.4 to 79.3) 85.0 (84.3 to 85.6) 5.1 (4.5 to 5.6) 99.6 (99.5 to 99.7) 4.8 (4.3 to 5.4) 0.3 (0.3 to 0.4) 84.8 (84.2 to 85.4) 
 qSOFA ≥2 44.3 (29.2 to 67.2) 28.9 (21.4 to 37.3) 99.1 (98.9 to 99.3) 26.2 (20.4 to 32.9) 99.2 (99.1 to 99.3) 31.8 (23.0 to 43.9) 0.7 (0.6 to 0.8) 98.3 (98.1 to 98.5) 
 qSOFA ≥1 15.7 (1.0 to 252.4) 100 (97.3 to 100) 5.5 (5.1 to 5.9) 1.2 (1.2 to 1.2) 100 1.1 (1.1 to 1.1) 6.5 (6.1 to 7.0) 
 PEWS ≥3 51.9 (31.5 to 85.5) 86.7 (79.8 to 91.9) 88.9 (88.3 to 89.4) 8.0 (7.4 to 8.6) 99.8 (99.7 to 99.9) 7.8 (7.1 to 8.5) 0.2 (0.1 to 0.2) 88.8 (88.3 to 89.4) 
 PEWS ≥2 17.3 (9.1 to 32.9) 92.6 (86.8 to 96.4) 58.0 (57.1 to 58.9) 2.4 (2.3 to 2.5) 99.9 (99.7 to 99.9) 2.2 (2.1 to 2.3) 0.1 (0.1 to 0.2) 58.4 (57.5 to 59.2) 
 NICE high-risk criteria ≥2 13.1 (9.3 to 18.7) 60.7 (52.0 to 69.0) 89.5 (88.9 to 90.0) 6.0 (5.3 to 6.9) 99.5 (99.4 to 99.6) 5.8 (5.0 to 6.7) 0.4 (0.4 to 0.5) 89.2 (88.6 to 89.7) 
 NICE high-risk criteria ≥1 13.0 (6.3 to 26.5) 94.1 (88.7 to 97.4) 45.0 (44.1 to 45.9) 1.9 (1.8 to 2.0) 99.9 (99.7 to 99.9) 1.7 (1.6 to 1.8) 0.1 (0.1 to 0.3) 45.5 (44.6 to 46.4) 
 Lactate ≥4 mmol/L 8.2 (3.6 to 18.9) 17.8 (10.9 to 26.7) 97.4 (95.2 to 98.8) 66.7 (48.1 to 81.2) 80.4 (78.9 to 81.8) 6.9 (3.2 to 15.0) 0.8 (0.8 to 0.9) 79.6 (75.6 to 83.2) 
 Lactate ≥2 mmol/L 2.1 (1.3 to 3.3) 55.5 (45.2 to 65.3) 62.9 (57.6 to 67.9) 30.1 (25.7 to 35.0) 83.0 (79.5 to 86.0) 1.5 (1.2 to 1.9) 0.7 (0.6 to 0.9) 61.2 (56.5 to 65.7) 
Secondary outcome: sepsis-related mortality         
 LqSOFA ≥2 119.3 (19.8 to 718.8) 60.0 (14.7 to 94.7) 98.8 (98.6 to 99.0) 1.9 (0.9 to 4.0) 100 48.3 (23.2 to 100.1) 0.4 (0.1 to 1.2) 98.7 (98.5 to 98.9) 
 LqSOFA ≥1 21.6 (2.4 to 193.0) 80.0 (28.4 to 99.5) 84.4 (83.7 to 85.0) 0.2 (0.1 to 0.3) 100 5.1 (3.3 to 7.9) 0.2 (0.0 to 1.4) 84.4 (83.7 to 85.0) 
 qSOFA ≥2 124.2 (20.6 to 748.9) 60.0 (14.7 to 94.7) 98.8 (98.6 to 99.0) 2.0 (1.0 to 4.0) 100 50.3 (24.1 to 104.7) 0.4 (0.1 to 1.2) 98.8 (98.6 to 99.0) 
 qSOFA ≥1 0.6 (0.0 to 11.4) 100 (47.8 to 100) 5.4 (5.0 to 5.8) 0.04 (0.04 to 0.04) 100 1.1 (1.1 to 1.1) 5.5 (5.1 to 5.9) 
 PEWS ≥3 81.2 (4.5 to 1468.7) 100 (47.8 to 100) 88.1 (87.5 to 88.6) 0.3 (0.3 to 0.4) 100 8.4 (8.0 to 8.8) 88.1 (87.5 to 88.6) 
 PEWS ≥2 14.9 (0.8 to 268.7) 100 (47.8 to 100) 57.5 (56.6 to 58.3) 0.1 (0.1 to 0.1) 100 2.4 (2.3 to 2.4) 57.5 (56.6 to 58.4) 
 NICE high-risk criteria ≥2 2.0 (0.2 to 18.0) 20.0 (0.5 to 71.6) 88.9 (88.4 to 89.5) 0.1 (0.0 to 0.4) 100 1.8 (0.3 to 10.4) 0.9 (0.6 to 1.4) 88.9 (88.3 to 89.4) 
 NICE high-risk criteria ≥1 8.8 (0.5 to 160.0) 100 (47.8 to 100) 44.6 (43.7 to 45.5) 0.1 (0.1 to 0.1) 100 1.8 (1.8 to 1.8) 44.6 (43.7 to 45.5) 
 Lactate ≥4 mmol/L 52.9 (5.3 to 527.5) 75.0 (19.4 to 99.4) 94.6 (92.1 to 96.5) 11.1 (5.9 to 19.9) 99.8 (98.7 to 100) 14.0 (7.0 to 27.8) 0.3 (0.1 to 1.4) 94.5 (91.9 to 96.4) 
 Lactate ≥2 mmol/L 4.3 (0.4 to 41.9) 75.0 (19.4 to 99.4) 59.1 (54.3 to 63.7) 1.6 (0.9 to 2.8) 99.6 (98.0 to 99.9) 1.8 (1.0 to 3.3) 0.4 (0.1 to 2.3) 59.2 (54.5 to 63.8) 
Scoring SystemOdds Ratio (95% CI)Sensitivity, % (95% CI)Specificity, % (95% CI)Positive Predictive Value, % (95% CI)Negative Predictive Value, % (95% CI)Positive Likelihood Ratio (95% CI)Negative Likelihood Ratio (95% CI)Accuracy, % (95% CI)
Primary outcome: CC admission within 48 h         
 LqSOFA ≥2 76.1 (51.2 to 113.1) 39.2 (31.0 to 48.0) 99.2 (99.0 to 99.3) 34.2 (28.1 to 40.9) 99.3 (99.2 to 99.4) 46.6 (35.0 to 62.0) 0.6 (0.5 to 0.7) 98.5 (98.3 to 98.7) 
 LqSOFA ≥1 14.4 (9.9 to 21.0) 71.9 (63.4 to 79.3) 85.0 (84.3 to 85.6) 5.1 (4.5 to 5.6) 99.6 (99.5 to 99.7) 4.8 (4.3 to 5.4) 0.3 (0.3 to 0.4) 84.8 (84.2 to 85.4) 
 qSOFA ≥2 44.3 (29.2 to 67.2) 28.9 (21.4 to 37.3) 99.1 (98.9 to 99.3) 26.2 (20.4 to 32.9) 99.2 (99.1 to 99.3) 31.8 (23.0 to 43.9) 0.7 (0.6 to 0.8) 98.3 (98.1 to 98.5) 
 qSOFA ≥1 15.7 (1.0 to 252.4) 100 (97.3 to 100) 5.5 (5.1 to 5.9) 1.2 (1.2 to 1.2) 100 1.1 (1.1 to 1.1) 6.5 (6.1 to 7.0) 
 PEWS ≥3 51.9 (31.5 to 85.5) 86.7 (79.8 to 91.9) 88.9 (88.3 to 89.4) 8.0 (7.4 to 8.6) 99.8 (99.7 to 99.9) 7.8 (7.1 to 8.5) 0.2 (0.1 to 0.2) 88.8 (88.3 to 89.4) 
 PEWS ≥2 17.3 (9.1 to 32.9) 92.6 (86.8 to 96.4) 58.0 (57.1 to 58.9) 2.4 (2.3 to 2.5) 99.9 (99.7 to 99.9) 2.2 (2.1 to 2.3) 0.1 (0.1 to 0.2) 58.4 (57.5 to 59.2) 
 NICE high-risk criteria ≥2 13.1 (9.3 to 18.7) 60.7 (52.0 to 69.0) 89.5 (88.9 to 90.0) 6.0 (5.3 to 6.9) 99.5 (99.4 to 99.6) 5.8 (5.0 to 6.7) 0.4 (0.4 to 0.5) 89.2 (88.6 to 89.7) 
 NICE high-risk criteria ≥1 13.0 (6.3 to 26.5) 94.1 (88.7 to 97.4) 45.0 (44.1 to 45.9) 1.9 (1.8 to 2.0) 99.9 (99.7 to 99.9) 1.7 (1.6 to 1.8) 0.1 (0.1 to 0.3) 45.5 (44.6 to 46.4) 
 Lactate ≥4 mmol/L 8.2 (3.6 to 18.9) 17.8 (10.9 to 26.7) 97.4 (95.2 to 98.8) 66.7 (48.1 to 81.2) 80.4 (78.9 to 81.8) 6.9 (3.2 to 15.0) 0.8 (0.8 to 0.9) 79.6 (75.6 to 83.2) 
 Lactate ≥2 mmol/L 2.1 (1.3 to 3.3) 55.5 (45.2 to 65.3) 62.9 (57.6 to 67.9) 30.1 (25.7 to 35.0) 83.0 (79.5 to 86.0) 1.5 (1.2 to 1.9) 0.7 (0.6 to 0.9) 61.2 (56.5 to 65.7) 
Secondary outcome: sepsis-related mortality         
 LqSOFA ≥2 119.3 (19.8 to 718.8) 60.0 (14.7 to 94.7) 98.8 (98.6 to 99.0) 1.9 (0.9 to 4.0) 100 48.3 (23.2 to 100.1) 0.4 (0.1 to 1.2) 98.7 (98.5 to 98.9) 
 LqSOFA ≥1 21.6 (2.4 to 193.0) 80.0 (28.4 to 99.5) 84.4 (83.7 to 85.0) 0.2 (0.1 to 0.3) 100 5.1 (3.3 to 7.9) 0.2 (0.0 to 1.4) 84.4 (83.7 to 85.0) 
 qSOFA ≥2 124.2 (20.6 to 748.9) 60.0 (14.7 to 94.7) 98.8 (98.6 to 99.0) 2.0 (1.0 to 4.0) 100 50.3 (24.1 to 104.7) 0.4 (0.1 to 1.2) 98.8 (98.6 to 99.0) 
 qSOFA ≥1 0.6 (0.0 to 11.4) 100 (47.8 to 100) 5.4 (5.0 to 5.8) 0.04 (0.04 to 0.04) 100 1.1 (1.1 to 1.1) 5.5 (5.1 to 5.9) 
 PEWS ≥3 81.2 (4.5 to 1468.7) 100 (47.8 to 100) 88.1 (87.5 to 88.6) 0.3 (0.3 to 0.4) 100 8.4 (8.0 to 8.8) 88.1 (87.5 to 88.6) 
 PEWS ≥2 14.9 (0.8 to 268.7) 100 (47.8 to 100) 57.5 (56.6 to 58.3) 0.1 (0.1 to 0.1) 100 2.4 (2.3 to 2.4) 57.5 (56.6 to 58.4) 
 NICE high-risk criteria ≥2 2.0 (0.2 to 18.0) 20.0 (0.5 to 71.6) 88.9 (88.4 to 89.5) 0.1 (0.0 to 0.4) 100 1.8 (0.3 to 10.4) 0.9 (0.6 to 1.4) 88.9 (88.3 to 89.4) 
 NICE high-risk criteria ≥1 8.8 (0.5 to 160.0) 100 (47.8 to 100) 44.6 (43.7 to 45.5) 0.1 (0.1 to 0.1) 100 1.8 (1.8 to 1.8) 44.6 (43.7 to 45.5) 
 Lactate ≥4 mmol/L 52.9 (5.3 to 527.5) 75.0 (19.4 to 99.4) 94.6 (92.1 to 96.5) 11.1 (5.9 to 19.9) 99.8 (98.7 to 100) 14.0 (7.0 to 27.8) 0.3 (0.1 to 1.4) 94.5 (91.9 to 96.4) 
 Lactate ≥2 mmol/L 4.3 (0.4 to 41.9) 75.0 (19.4 to 99.4) 59.1 (54.3 to 63.7) 1.6 (0.9 to 2.8) 99.6 (98.0 to 99.9) 1.8 (1.0 to 3.3) 0.4 (0.1 to 2.3) 59.2 (54.5 to 63.8) 
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